The extent of the decline from 1.6039 makes it unlikely that 1.5611 will hold. Expect a bounce from current levels, perhaps a spike through 1.5750 next week in order to complete a small c wave before 1.5611 is put to the test. A break below there would bring an end to the series of higher lows and puts bears firmly in control.
The Fed minutes released this passed week confirmed what the market has been pricing in for some months now: the next move in interest rates is likely to come in the form of a rate hike. However, for dollar traders, the operative question is not whether the policy board will hike or cut, but rather when.
Retail sentiment has once again shifted; and this time, speculative traders are positioning for the EURUSD’s long-term trend to remain intact. Over the past week, the Speculative Sentiment Index ratio jumped to its highest reading since last October - though this shouldn’t be too surprising considering the retail sector’s affinity for prominent technical levels. Today, the pair’s ratio stands at -1.59 with nearly 61% of the market group holding a long position.
The following is our monthly correlations update for July. As we have stated time and again, correlations between different currency pairs will inevitably shift over time. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to keep abreast of these fluctuating relationships to fully understand your trades and portfolio. Below are the one-, three-, six- and twelve-month correlations for the seven major currency pairs. Additionally, we have included the six-month trailing correlation versus the EURUSD as further confirmation of the correlation.