The third-quarter forecast for the AUD/USD pair indicates stability with minimal changes expected. The primary factor influencing this forecast is the consistent interest rate differential between the U.S. and Australia. While U.S. interest rates were anticipated to decline, the first cut is now postponed to late Q4. Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia may not adjust rates until the first half of 2025 due to persistent high inflation. Despite potential economic expansion and commodities growth favoring the Australian dollar, significant shifts in the AUD/USD pair are unlikely in the short term.
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