As France faces elections in Q3, market uncertainty could escalate due to potential political deadlock, resulting in difficulty passing legislation. This scenario may lead to soaring bond yields, already observed in the French-German spread. Additionally, fears of contagion impacting peripheral nations, potentially affecting bond markets adversely. Despite this, if inflation trends improve as seen in the US and unexpectedly in the EU, the euro might recover losses towards the end of Q3, influencing the EUR/USD exchange rate.
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