Retail Sentiment Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD
EUR/USD – Bearish Outlook Reinforced
Recent retail trading data indicates that 57.14% of traders have taken long positions on EUR/USD, with a ratio of 1.33 long traders for every short trader. The number of long positions has increased by 26.08% since yesterday and 6.42% since last week. Conversely, short positions have decreased by 18.26% since yesterday and 15.81% since last week. Given our contrarian approach to market sentiment, this predominance of long positions suggests a potential continued decline in EUR/USD prices. The combination of current sentiment and recent shifts strengthens our bearish outlook on EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
USD/JPY – Shifting Towards Lower Prices?
Analysis of retail trader behavior reveals that only 18.06% of traders are net-long on USD/JPY, with short positions exceeding long positions at a ratio of 4.54 to 1. We've observed increases in both net-long positions (up 7.83% since yesterday and 16.31% week-over-week) and net-short positions (up 1.25% since yesterday and 7.93% week-over-week). Our contrarian strategy usually views net-short sentiment as bullish for USD/JPY. However, the recent decrease in net short positioning relative to long positioning suggests a potential shift. This change in sentiment patterns may indicate an impending downward reversal in USD/JPY prices, despite the overall net-short market position
USD/JPY Daily Price Chart
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| Weekly | 13% | -5% | -2% |
GBP/USD – Stronger Bearish Outlook
Recent retail trading data indicates that 53.98% of traders have taken long positions on GBP/USD, with long traders outnumbering short traders by a ratio of 1.17 to 1. The number of long positions has increased by 12.28% since yesterday and 21.58% over the past week. Conversely, short positions have decreased by 5.48% since yesterday and 18.64% over the week. Given our contrarian approach to market sentiment, this predominance of long positions suggests a potential continued decline in GBP/USD prices. The current sentiment, combined with recent position changes, strengthens our bearish outlook on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart
What are your views on the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
