US Dollar, USD/THB, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- US Dollar is making some upside progress against ASEAN currencies
- The Singapore Dollar and Philippine Peso appears to be more at risk
- Further upside confirmation lacking in USD/THB and USD/IDR
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook – Bullish
The Singapore Dollar is under pressure against the US Dollar. USD/SGD closed at its highest since early January, confirming the breakout above a near-term falling trendline from the end of last year. A bullish Golden Cross between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) seems likely on the horizon, hinting at further upside potential. Immediate resistance seems to be the 1.3607 – 1.3631 inflection zone. Clearing the latter could pave the way to revisit peaks from last year. Otherwise, a turn lower would likely place the focus on the near-term SMAs, which may hold as key support.
USD/SGD Daily Chart
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook - Bullish
The US Dollar is making an aggressive push higher against the Philippine Peso. USD/PHP pierced the critical 51.320 – 51.618 resistance zone, closing at the highest rate since October 2019. Follow-through at this point is lacking, but further upside progress could hint at more gains to come. Immediate resistance is the 2020 high at 52.869. Negative RSI divergence is present, showing that upside momentum is fading, which can precede a turn lower. Such an outcome would likely place the focus on the 50-day SMA, which may pivot prices higher if it holds as support. Further gains exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 52.406.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
Thai Baht Technical Outlook – Neutral
The US Dollar’s attempt to extend gains against the Thai Baht from late February fell short this past week. A bearish Death Cross between the 50- and 200-day SMAs may form on the horizon, reinstating the dominant downside focus since late 2021. Resuming loses entails turning lower and taking out the 32.088 – 32.196 support zone. Below the latter are the 138.2% and 150% Fibonacci extensions at 32.011 and 31.842 respectively. In the event of a material turn higher, passing above the SMAs exposes a falling trendline from late November, which may also reinstate a downside focus.
USD/THB Daily Chart
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook - Neutral
The US Dollar has made some upside progress against the Indonesian Rupiah as of late. Still, USD/IDR remains in a broadly consolidative state. Prices have been oscillating between rising support from October and falling resistance from April. A breakout above the former could spell a meaningful shift in pace. Getting to that point entails clearing immediate resistance, a range between 14370 and 14403. Beyond the latter sits the December high at 14438. To the downside, clearing rising support exposes the February low at 14260.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
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